Koch und Leimbach, 2023

Koch, J., Leimbach, M. (2023): SSP economic growth projections: Major changes of key drivers in integrated assessment modelling. - Ecological Economics, 206, 107751. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2023.107751

GDP scenarios are major drivers of climate change and climate change mitigation assessment studies. In this paper, a major update of the SSP GDP projections is presented. By using the most recent economic data and short-term projections by the World Bank and International Monetary Fund, the update captures changes in the system of national accounting and purchasing power parities, as well as the impact of the Covid 19 pandemic. Harmonization between the data and the original end-of-the century SSP projections was carried out in terms of GDP per capita in order to preserve the underlying narrative of income convergence. The result is a set of projections compatible with the most recent data and the SSP narratives. A comparison of DICE models calibrated to the original and updated SSP2 GDP per capita projections illustrates how significant the impact of an update of income data on integrated assessment results can be. The estimated global social costs of carbon in 2015 and 2030 rose by almost 30%.